Could Milton Become a Category 6 Hurricane? Is That Even Possible?

Category 6 Hurrican

Could Milton Become a Category 6 Hurricane? Is That Even Possible?

 As Hurricane Milton churns over the Atlantic, building power and displaying signs of being an exceedingly hazardous storm, some are raising the unsettling question: Could Milton become a Category 6 hurricane? More importantly, is such a classification even possible given our current understanding of hurricanes?

Understanding the Saffir-Simpson Scale

To determine whether Hurricane Milton or any future storm will become a Category 6, first learn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Meteorologists commonly use the following scale to classify hurricanes based on sustained wind speeds:

Category 1: 74 to 95 mph (119 to 153 km/h).
Category 2: 96 to 110 mph (154 to 177 km/h).
Category 3: 111 to 129 mph (178 to 208 km/h).
Category 4: 130 to 156 mph (209 to 251 km/h).
Category 5: 157+ mph (252+ km/h).

Could Hurricane Milton Be Strong Enough for Category 6?

The highest category on the scale is Category 5, which denotes storms with winds of at least 157 mph. However, as global temperatures and sea levels rise, hurricanes have begun to exceed customary expectations, prompting debate about whether the scale should be stretched to encompass a Category 6.

Hurricane Milton is currently reaching the Category 5 threshold. If sustained wind gusts surpass 185-190 mph, the storm is still categorized as Category 5, but it may be far stronger than the "typical" Category 5 hurricane. Recent superstorms, such as Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Hurricane Patricia in 2015, achieved comparable exceptional levels, with maximum sustained winds approaching 200 mph.

Despite their enormous strength, these storms do not have an official Category 6 designation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other meteorological organizations have so far rejected demands to broaden the Saffir-Simpson scale. They contend that the distinction between Category 5 hurricanes and potential Category 6 storms is insignificant in practice because both reflect catastrophic, life-threatening situations.

The Science Behind Category 6 Discussions

The concept of a Category 6 hurricane derives from the hypothesis that as ocean temperatures rise owing to climate change, storms will become more violent than the existing scale allows for. Warm water is the primary fuel for hurricanes, and when sea surface temperatures in some areas of the Atlantic and Pacific rise above historical averages, experts estimate that future storms will frequently exceed Category 5 wind speeds.

Dr. Kerry Emanuel, a well-known hurricane scientist from MIT, has commented on the possibility of a Category 6, stating that while we haven't reached that level yet, the potential there. "If we see a storm with sustained winds of 210-220 mph, we'll need to reconsider how we categorize these types of events," he told reporters.

The Impact of Climate Change on Storm Intensity

Climate change is increasingly being acknowledged as a major cause of storm strengthening. Rising sea surface temperatures and shifting atmospheric patterns generate conditions that allow hurricanes to intensify and maintain higher wind speeds. Milton is part of a disturbing pattern of storms rapidly intensifying, which occurs when a hurricane's wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.
This phenomena was observed with Hurricane Ida in 2021, which intensified substantially before making landfall, and it is currently occurring with Hurricane Milton as it moves across extremely warm Atlantic waters. Warmer oceans, combined with greater atmospheric moisture, help to generate more powerful storms.

What Would It Take to Create a Category 6? 

Hurricane scientists believe that if enough storms reach the top end of the Category 5 range, discussions regarding altering the scale will gain steam. The increasing frequency of storms with gusts near 200 mph may cause the National Hurricane Center and other organizations to reevaluate how they define extreme hurricanes in the future.

Findings: Could Milton mark the beginning of a new era?

As Hurricane Milton approaches land, its power has revived concerns over the future of hurricane categorization. While Milton is not legally a Category 6 storm, its ability to exceed customary limitations raises concerns about how we measure and respond to the most severe weather events.

For the time being, Category 5 hurricanes are the most severe, but a Category 6 storm is not far off. As climate change continues to influence storm behavior, future hurricanes like Milton may push the boundaries of what we thought were conceivable.